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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Jony" data-source="post: 66507" data-attributes="member: 8274">A major risk factor to them (and to my holdings as well!) is the possibility of Satoshi's identity being revealed!I find it incredibly interesting that Coinbase is doing this - a few reasons why I think so:1) Coinbase is majority owned by 5 main entities - the two co-founders, and three large VC firms that have backed it since 2012. Major shareholders (Brian Armstrong, Fred Ehrsem, Andreessen Horowitz, a16z Capital etc) won't have their portion of shares diluted - in a way, it's a long term game for them all.  I think their biggest fear is the uncertainty of the post-bull-run last month - with a 180 day lock-in period for traditional IPOs they would have to wait until July to take profits and to pay off their own shareholders (USV liquidated 28% of it's share yesterday for the 2022 10-year return). What would the crypto world look like in July? Looks like these main fellas don't want to guess. Andreessen Horowitz also looks like it wants to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/vc-firm-andreessen-horowitz-to-debut-new-media-property/articleshow/80474663.cms" target="_blank">raise cash for near-term returns</a>.Skim some profits now, and don't wait until July when the world could be a completely different place - this seems to be a persuasive point.2) Underwriting a world-first crypto exchange listing is not something that is, I reckon, easily done with the volatile fluctuation of cryptocurrencies. How does one use key performance indicators (KPI) and non-GAAP measures accurately for a company that is able to profit from price swings and high trading activity during those volatile +20% days? With a $100 billion valuation, one also wonders how much underwriters would be paid - painfully diluting profit share of the major holders. With a 2020 profit of $320m versus a $30m loss in 2019, liquidity also isn't urgent. Direct listing on the NYSE saves money (the NYSE is already an investor in Coinbase too lol), and Coinbase is already such an established brand that it doesn't need a long roadshow - speaking of roadshows, it would be hard to have a roadshow in the middle of a pandemic!Also, stag-flipping on the first day of a world-first crypto exchange is ... needless to say, probably going to happen when the company's fundamentals are based on such a volatile group of underlying assets!3) After Brian Armstrong's <a href="https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-a-mission-focused-company-af882df8804" target="_blank">controversial blog post</a> detailing Coinbase's non-political, 'laser-focused' stance towards the world (he basically tried to depoliticize his company and focus purely on growth), there is a business case that asset managers would hesitate to invest in an IPO. As we all know from our law firm interviews, for the past 2 years, ESG = profit. Blackrock, Esso, Shell, Coca-Cola - there are many investors out there that would shy away from a voraciously outspoken CEO of a $100billion company that doesn't want to get involved in activism or external politicking. <a href="https://www.irmagazine.com/corporate-access/where-start-esg-roadshows" target="_blank">Think of the roadshow - this policy would become a hot topic throughout</a>, if the roadshow went on.*Some thoughts on his blog post by <a href="https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/9/30/21493906/brian-armstrong-coinbase-blog-post-politics-workplace-activism" target="_blank">Verge</a>, Coindesk's <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-severance-apolitical-mission" target="_blank">update on employee satisfaction re: the post</a>, Wired's <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=brian+armstrong+blog+post&safe=off&rlz=1C1ONGR_enSG932SG932&sxsrf=ALeKk032Lai1fumxWPPs3LIQ8z5veV3vdA:1614427192686&ei=ODQ6YOqxKc661fAPle6OuAE&start=10&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwjqrdf6gYrvAhVOXRUIHRW3AxcQ8tMDegQIBhA4&biw=1920&bih=937" target="_blank">view of BLM and political speech at the company</a>.After reading his blog post - I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm all for an ideologically inclusive environment, but I also believe that businesses' sole goal isn't just profiteering. I'd much rather work for a company like Mars which supports the Economics of Mutuality - an enhanced ideal of stakeholder capitalism. But I see where the investors would worry. Imagine if it all came down on IPO day that a major political event happened, and that Brian Armstrong wouldn't respond to it internally or externally - shareholders would have a 180 day rollercoaster ride while their shares remain locked in, at the whim of every investor possible (let's not forget the rise of Reddit activism and how powerful that can be!) This would be vastly different from Musk - Brian Armstrong remains ideologically untested, and very much unknown and uncertain in the eyes of investors and laypeople like us. As a person overseeing the world's most expensive cryptocurrency exchange with the assets of 43m retail users and 7,000 major institutions - this matters.*disclosure - I have been using Coinbase for 5 years. </blockquote>

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