Honestly, we’re not entirely sure. The general consensus on this forum is that SH recruit a high percentage of trainees (around 50%ish) from Direct TC applications.
However, I think this data is quite outdated.
I made it to SH’s direct TC AC last year, and they only made a few offers via the direct TC route.
The year before, they took 4 people from the direct TC route.
I’d recommend emailing and asking Grad Rec. However, chances are, they won’t be transparent (partially because the numbers will vary each year).
I’d say a safer bet is applying to the VS