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TCLA Vacation Scheme Applications Discussion Thread 2025-26

Andrei Radu

Legendary Member
Staff member
Future Trainee
Gold Member
Premium Member
Sep 9, 2024
965
1,691
Please can someone clarify some issues about the budget: @Ram Sabaratnam @Abbie Whitlock @Andrei Radu

Government borrowing is going to be higher than expected over the next 3 years (although promised to decrease in 2029-30 - unsure if this will materialise), is this likely to put pressure on yields and interest rates (despite the fall in yields after the budget announcement + interest rate cut expected in December)? Will it increase borrowing costs? Overall, how does this affect deal activity keeping private credit in mind?
Hi @badmintonflyinginsect I think the effects you mentioned are natural consequences of increased government borrowing. Increased borrowing firstly means an increase in demand for government bonds, which, in the absence of a proportionate increase in supply, results in a decrease in bond price, which leads to an increase in yields. Secondly, increased government borrowing comes with increased defaulting risk, which bond markets price by demanding higher yields as compensation.

On the general interest rate side, an increase of government borrowing can firstly lead to increased government spending, which can be inflationary and thus lead to central banks increasing interest rates. Secondly, rising government borrowing can theoretically have a "crowding out" effect: because of its size, it can absorb a large portion of the economy's lending capacity, potentially leading to higher interest rates across the entire economy, including for private sector businesses and individuals.

Nonetheless, while these consequences follow from an economic theory perspective if you look at this point of fiscal policy in isolation, I do not actullay expect them to end up materialising in practice (at least in a very strong and impactful sense). Firstly, on the yields side: modern governments rise and fall on the reaction of bond markets, as seen with Liz Truss' disastrous mini budget, and this Labour government is very unlikely to take the risk of a similar situation occurring. If there is any wind of a negative outlook as to the country's defaulting risk, this will likely result in further tax rises. Secondly, on the interest rate side, I would not expect this crowding out effect to occur, simply because the UK government has access to immense pools of international public and private capital; and following this post-Covid inflationary period, I think government spending is something that will be a lot more tightly controlled.
 

Goodbyetc

Active Member
Nov 17, 2025
13
6
Have you heard back yet? I wasn't sure if I was put on some sort of reserve list because my email said I passed the TI but only being considered for an AC after everyone has completed their TI
I had mine today so idk if maybe im one of the last interviews? I was told that we’d probably hear in the next week for ACs which are in December/jan
 

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