My limited two cents on this is that "chances" of success if choosing the direct TC route over the VS route probably depends on each firm. If a firm maintains this position, though, I think it's advising/kind of warning you that its most beneficial to you to apply to the VS over the TC, if this is a firm you really want to have the best chance of securing a TC at. But, because there will be applicants that cannot apply for the VS route for certain circumstances (work a full-time job that they can't take 2 weeks off for or are an international candidate who cannot get a visa for a VS), then a TC option is kept in order to be accommodating as possible to the widest pool of applicants.
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