Fall of Netflix?
- By Daniel Boden
- Commercial Awareness Discussion
- 2 Replies
A very interesting article was released today by Stephen McBride in Forbes about the probable fall of Netflix in the very near future. This is something which I think may be of interest to people for commercial awareness questions in applications and in interviews.
The link to the full article is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephe...-worst-nightmare-is-coming-true/#3efbc9146efc
I hope this is useful for people!
Dan
This was not a popular thing to say when I first wrote it in July.
Back then, Netflix was the hottest stock on Wall Street. It had surged 107% in six months, hitting record highs.
But it turns out July was the right time to sell Netflix. Since then it has crashed 37%:
Netflix’s Best Days Are Over
You can review my reasoning for why Netflix is doomed here and here. It comes down to the lifecycle of disruptive businesses.
Netflix pioneered “streaming” video where you watch shows through the Internet rather than on cable TV.
For years, it was the only streaming service in town. Early investors rode this first-mover advantage to 10,000% gains from 2008 to July of this year.
Today I see three other companies in the same position Netflix was back in 2008. I wrote a free special report about those stocks with in-depth research and my suggested buy prices.
But for Netflix, the era of almost zero competition is over.
It’s now coming up against powerful rivals like Disney (DIS)—which I recommended you buy in July.
Disney will launch its own streaming service called “Disney+” next year. It’s going to pull all its shows and movies off Netflix and put them on Disney+ instead.
This is a huge problem for Netflix because Disney has the world’s best content by a long shot. It owns household brands like Marvel… Pixar Animations… Star Wars… ESPN… ABC… X-Men… not to mention all the traditional characters like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.
When it launches next year, Disney+ will be a no-brainer purchase for most families. I’ll certainly be subscribing for my daughter.
Meanwhile, Netflix will lose a lot of its best content… and potentially millions of subscribers who switch to Disney+.
Amazon Is Gaining a Foothold in Streaming, Too
In February, Amazon (AMZN) announced it would spend $5 billion developing original shows and movies this year. In response, Netflix upped its spending by 50%.
Netflix had planned to spend $8 billion on shows and series this year… now it’ll spend roughly $12 billion. It now invests more in content than any other American TV network.
Keep in mind, Amazon is the third-largest publicly traded company on earth. It has much deeper pockets than Netflix or even Disney.
To have any hope of keeping up with its rivals, Netflix must keep ramping up its spending on content.
Problem is, it can’t.
Netflix makes only a small profit, so it’s had to borrow gobs of money to fund its show creation. Its debt has exploded 71% in the past year to $8.3 billion.
That’s not sustainable.
Now, Netflix has three bad choices: continue borrowing billions and bury itself deeper in debt… dramatically raise its subscription prices… or cut back on making new content.
I Recommend Disney
Netflix traded at $400 when I first sounded the warning…
It has dropped to around $275 today. And as I mentioned last time, my research shows it’s worth $190–$200 a share, max.
So, Netflix is still a “no-touch.”
Disney, on the other hand, has gained 11.5% since July and hit multi-year highs earlier in November. That’s more impressive given that most stocks have struggled in the last few months.
Disney is still a great buy at today’s price of $116. My research shows it’s heading for $170—roughly 45% higher than today.
Stephen McBridge is a professional fund manager and the chief analyst at RiskHedge.
The link to the full article is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephe...-worst-nightmare-is-coming-true/#3efbc9146efc
I hope this is useful for people!
Dan
Netflix's Worst Nightmare Is Coming True
If you’ve been reading RiskHedge, you know I’ve been warning to keep money out of stock market darling Netflix (NFLX).
This was not a popular thing to say when I first wrote it in July.
Back then, Netflix was the hottest stock on Wall Street. It had surged 107% in six months, hitting record highs.
But it turns out July was the right time to sell Netflix. Since then it has crashed 37%:
Netflix’s Best Days Are Over
You can review my reasoning for why Netflix is doomed here and here. It comes down to the lifecycle of disruptive businesses.
Netflix pioneered “streaming” video where you watch shows through the Internet rather than on cable TV.
For years, it was the only streaming service in town. Early investors rode this first-mover advantage to 10,000% gains from 2008 to July of this year.
Today I see three other companies in the same position Netflix was back in 2008. I wrote a free special report about those stocks with in-depth research and my suggested buy prices.
But for Netflix, the era of almost zero competition is over.
It’s now coming up against powerful rivals like Disney (DIS)—which I recommended you buy in July.
Disney will launch its own streaming service called “Disney+” next year. It’s going to pull all its shows and movies off Netflix and put them on Disney+ instead.
This is a huge problem for Netflix because Disney has the world’s best content by a long shot. It owns household brands like Marvel… Pixar Animations… Star Wars… ESPN… ABC… X-Men… not to mention all the traditional characters like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.
When it launches next year, Disney+ will be a no-brainer purchase for most families. I’ll certainly be subscribing for my daughter.
Meanwhile, Netflix will lose a lot of its best content… and potentially millions of subscribers who switch to Disney+.
Amazon Is Gaining a Foothold in Streaming, Too
In February, Amazon (AMZN) announced it would spend $5 billion developing original shows and movies this year. In response, Netflix upped its spending by 50%.
Netflix had planned to spend $8 billion on shows and series this year… now it’ll spend roughly $12 billion. It now invests more in content than any other American TV network.
Keep in mind, Amazon is the third-largest publicly traded company on earth. It has much deeper pockets than Netflix or even Disney.
To have any hope of keeping up with its rivals, Netflix must keep ramping up its spending on content.
Problem is, it can’t.
Netflix makes only a small profit, so it’s had to borrow gobs of money to fund its show creation. Its debt has exploded 71% in the past year to $8.3 billion.
That’s not sustainable.
Now, Netflix has three bad choices: continue borrowing billions and bury itself deeper in debt… dramatically raise its subscription prices… or cut back on making new content.
I Recommend Disney
Netflix traded at $400 when I first sounded the warning…
It has dropped to around $275 today. And as I mentioned last time, my research shows it’s worth $190–$200 a share, max.
So, Netflix is still a “no-touch.”
Disney, on the other hand, has gained 11.5% since July and hit multi-year highs earlier in November. That’s more impressive given that most stocks have struggled in the last few months.
Disney is still a great buy at today’s price of $116. My research shows it’s heading for $170—roughly 45% higher than today.
Stephen McBridge is a professional fund manager and the chief analyst at RiskHedge.
Watson Glaser Pass Mark
- By Qy_
- Applications Discussion
- 51 Replies
Hi everyone So, to stand a good chance of getting an AC, what sort of score should I aim for? (specifically with regards to Linklaters and Clifford Chance) I usually score around 75%.
So, to stand a good chance of getting an AC, what sort of score should I aim for? (specifically with regards to Linklaters and Clifford Chance) I usually score around 75%.
Ask Me Anything: Future Trainee at Reed Smith
- By Salma
- Vacation Schemes Discussion
- 63 Replies
Hey All,
As Jaysen noted, we will be starting the AMA threads very shortly with future trainees/trainees at different firms, in order to motivate and inspire you all through the application process.
In order to kick things off, Rachael Mintah, a future trainee at Reed Smith (a very close friend of mine who is the epitome of hard work and perseverance) has agreed to answer any questions.
I will post a short introductory paragraph about her shortly but before doing so, brief intro - She recently graduated from Politics at Warwick. She completed a winter vac scheme with NRF last year and despite no offer following the scheme, she still persevered with her applications. Following a straight TC app, completing the SJT and AC, she received a training contract offer from Reed Smith to commence in 2021, once she completes the GDL and LPC.
Please note that Rachael will only be available to answer questions from 7pm onwards this week (still confirming what day).
I hope everyone will be able to join us in welcoming her and given the number of questions relating to Reed Smith’s vacation scheme application this year, I hope she will be able to assist you all!
Edit: Members, I feel like typing up away on this forum is not as engaging or interactive when it comes to AMA threads and I was wondering (if you are all up for it), if a live YouTube session with the trainee or future trainee would be more convenient?
If you could all comment below with yes or no re the live sessions, I would be grateful and I look forward to seeing your responses
As Jaysen noted, we will be starting the AMA threads very shortly with future trainees/trainees at different firms, in order to motivate and inspire you all through the application process.
In order to kick things off, Rachael Mintah, a future trainee at Reed Smith (a very close friend of mine who is the epitome of hard work and perseverance) has agreed to answer any questions.
I will post a short introductory paragraph about her shortly but before doing so, brief intro - She recently graduated from Politics at Warwick. She completed a winter vac scheme with NRF last year and despite no offer following the scheme, she still persevered with her applications. Following a straight TC app, completing the SJT and AC, she received a training contract offer from Reed Smith to commence in 2021, once she completes the GDL and LPC.
Please note that Rachael will only be available to answer questions from 7pm onwards this week (still confirming what day).
I hope everyone will be able to join us in welcoming her and given the number of questions relating to Reed Smith’s vacation scheme application this year, I hope she will be able to assist you all!
Edit: Members, I feel like typing up away on this forum is not as engaging or interactive when it comes to AMA threads and I was wondering (if you are all up for it), if a live YouTube session with the trainee or future trainee would be more convenient?
If you could all comment below with yes or no re the live sessions, I would be grateful and I look forward to seeing your responses
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